Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: Tis the season for a rate cut
As 2024 winds down and Wall Street is lit up like a Christmas tree, there’s still plenty to keep us on our toes. Will central banks bring glad tidings?
1 min
Review of the week: A Continental dog’s breakfast
The outlook for Europe looks cloudy as its two largest economies struggle. Comparatively, the UK is doing generally ok. It’s only the US that continues to power ahead.
1 min
Review of the week: I predict a riot
A plan to sort out France’s unsustainable state spending is in jeopardy as another government is threatened with dissolution by the parliament. Meanwhile, chances improve for a December interest rate cut in the US.
1 min
Review of the week: A tough COP
Developed nations have agreed to a three-fold increase to clean energy and climate mitigation funding for poorer countries, but with a 10-year phase-in. Meanwhile, advanced nations are battling spiralling energy costs – some more than others.
1 min
Review of the week: UK growth deflated
The UK economy hit the wall last quarter, while inflation started rising again. In the US, expectations of interest rate cuts have cooled since Donald Trump was elected President.
1 min
Review of the week: A tale of 2 markets
Equity and bond investors had opposite reactions to the US election. But Trump 2.0 may have less influence than investors first hoped or feared.
1 min
Review of the week: Too close to call
Bond yields rise in the aftermath of the UK Budget and with Americans poised to go to the polls.
1 min
Review of the week: Preparing for a tough Budget
Labour will deliver its first Budget in almost 15 years this week. With little wiggle room and a shopping list of problems, it will be hard for the Chancellor to please anyone.
1 min
Review of the week: Goodbye to all that?
UK inflation is below the central bank’s 2% target for the first time in three and a half years. That should clear the way for further cuts to interest rates.
1 min
Review of the week: France cuts spending, ECB to cut rates?
The twin engines of the European economy, Germany and France, are sputtering. With inflation falling and France turning to austerity, will the central bank come to the rescue?
1 min
Review of the week: Jobs bounce back
America’s fading jobs market reversed course last month, with a surge of new jobs created. What does this mean for the path of interest rates?
1 min
Review of the week: The return of the dragon
The year of the dragon hasn’t been an auspicious one for China so far. Its leaders are trying to turn that around with a wall of money to kickstart its sputtering economy.
1 min
Recovery rolls on, belying rocky times
Earnings are booming in the West as the recovery rolls on despite investor nervousness.
4 mins
Full of surprises
Recent inflation headlines have made for uncomfortable reading, and volatility picked up as investors remained sceptical of policymakers’ messaging. But we don’t think rising inflation is here to stay as there are too many other phenomena that will push it down.
4 mins
America blooms
America is opening up along with the spring blossoms, and a strong summer of spending seems to be on the way. The rebound in fortunes has helped the S&P 500 reach new highs which, as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, go hand in hand with rising yields.
4 mins
Springing yields
Bond yields and a new season’s flowers both sprung up last month, heralding an end to the dark days of lockdown winter. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth ponders the big question on investors’ minds – does this also foreshadow a prolonged period of higher inflation?
3 mins
A bleary-eyed awakening
After a busy start to the year there’s still a lot of uncertainty swirling around in markets. But economies tend to bounce back hard after sombre periods, and hope remains that our eventual return to ‘normal’ will be no different.
3 mins
Optimistic realism in a vaccinated recovery
A roller-coaster of a year finished on a high note for the markets, and we start 2021 with a sense of relief that one of the most difficult years many of us have ever experienced is behind us.
4 mins
Staying balanced
With a clutch of vaccines on the way soon, equity markets were in a buoyant mood in November. But there are still a lot of things we don’t know – and even some things we don’t know that we don’t know…
3 mins
America (finally) decides
Equities fell in October as investors came to terms with tighter lockdown restrictions, but hopes for a new round of US stimulus under President-elect Joe Biden have buoyed markets, and Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth reckons we should take heart.
3 mins
Post holiday blues
With summer fading into memory, a long uncertain winter of social distancing lies ahead. It’s easy to feel gloomy, but as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth argues, we should try not to buy into the doom.
4 mins
A patchy summer
As summer winds down and the pandemic persists, governments are finding it hard to taper their support measures.
4 mins
Managing expectations
The hard data is coming in and so far companies have fared better through the pandemic than expected. Just how long complete recovery will take no one knows, but as chief economist Julian Chillingworth notes, we maintain our long-held belief in the human capacity to co-operate and solve problems.
3 mins
Are the bears in hibernation, or just napping?
With the groundwork laid for a rapid recovery, equity markets reflected continued optimism in June. But as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, significant risks remain.
3 mins
