The Sharpe End Podcast

Mariah Carey is back, Elf on the Shelf is loose, and our head of multi-asset, David Coombs, faces his annual predictions test. Will the team be naughty or nice when scoring David’s forecasts?

A lot going on this month, so the team focus on two rather large events which took place within a week of each other.

The gaze turns eastward this month as the team discuss China’s recent stimulus. Will it be enough to wrestle the economy out of its post-COVID funk?

It’s just over a month since Keir Starmer took over at Number 10, and for those of you not glued to Ticketmaster scrambling for Oasis tickets you may have noticed that we’ve started to learn a little more about what “Starmerism” will look like.

Trying to unpick some pretty extraordinary moves in global indices, the team discuss what’s been going on. They then move on to automotive parts and also review American Tower.

On the eve of the most telegraphed election result in UK history, the team turns instead to a murkier electoral outlook in Europe.

Inflation is on our agenda but not quite in the way you might expect. We discuss the outlook for inflation in the longer term and consider how some big structural changes could shift perceptions on what’s a ‘normal’ rate of inflation.

In an election extravaganza of a year the team discuss how they will navigate the many political changes which may be ahead, Plus, they delve into diversification and the UK medical equipment company Smith & Nephew.

With plenty of debate about the state of the US economy, whether the inflation dragon is slain or not, if the landing will be a soft one, and when the Fed might start cutting rates, the team discuss whether the US economic porridge is too hot, too cold or just right.

While the US economy and markets seemingly look in a pretty good place right now, the team discuss one of the potential flies in the ointment: US commercial real estate. Many worries have been floated about large cuts to office property values – are they valid? And if so what second order impacts could there be? The focus then turns eastward to the rise of Japan’s stock market and increased investor interest. This leads the team to discuss whether years of corporate reform could mean a new dawn for the nation or just another false one. Finally, the Magnificent Seven is tackled head on as the team discuss Nvidia, the darling of the market, to highlight what the company does, how it has changed, and why it has earned plaudits and a stratospheric share price rise.

The Magnificent Seven was the buzz phrase of 2023 as seven stocks drove so much of the return from US equity markets. America isn't the only place with a concentration issue though: it’s the same picture in Europe and the UK. The team look forward and discuss what risks and opportunities may lie ahead as a result of this phenomenon. They then turn to the defence sector and why there might be some meaningful changes afoot to drive more government spending in this area. Finally, Canadian e-commerce company Shopify is on the agenda as the team outline the company's broad appeal, along with the ups and downs of their journey owning this name.

After the roller coaster that was 2023, the team discuss getting their bearings for the year ahead. Then, speaking of creaking behemoth structures in need of investment, they explain why they’ve been buying general infrastructure funds for the first time ever. Finally, a new portfolio holding is German medtech company Carl Zeiss, which specialises in cutting-edge tools for eye health. Perhaps some of Carl Zeiss’ products may help us all better see what the year ahead might hold…

It’s that time of year again where the whole Sharpe End team get together for the Christmas Special and become David’s judge and jury on the predictions he made for 2023 at the end of last year. Did David’s crystal ball serve him well in calling what happens to the bond markets, commodity markets, equity markets, and a few more random areas too!? Last year David managed 5.5 points, an advance on the 4.5 points of the year previous. Will his march toward prediction perfection continue, or will it all come crashing down to reality with a bump?

Is US President Joe Biden’s huge infrastructure stimulus bending the US Treasury yield curve more than Beckham at the dead ball? Moderating inflation hasn’t stopped long-term US Treasury bond yields from whipping higher (and therefore prices falling sharply) in the past couple of months – could it be worries around government spending and the much larger amount of bonds being sold at auction? Meanwhile, earnings season has dominated stock markets recently, so the team discuss the winners and losers this time round and why. Lastly, they share why US landfill and recycling business Waste Management is more exciting than you may first think.

The team discuss the very different approaches to government investment in the US and UK and how this impacts the relative attractiveness of those economies. Next-generation weight loss drugs have grabbed the headlines of late, but unpicking the long-term impacts of these treatments on businesses is fraught with difficulty. Then, in the interests of balance, the team turn to alcohol and burgers as they discuss their recent switch from drinks giant Diageo to fast-food behemoth McDonalds.

With an array of UK retailers struggling and the housing market slump deepening, the team discuss managing exposure to the UK and why they are keeping an eye on the escalating government clampdown on Airbnb. Also, in recognition of National Inclusion Week, the team share how they think about diversity when investing and why Nike, one of the few consumer stocks they hold, is one company that has navigated this area successfully.

The team cast their minds back to the days before we knew what COVID was and when inflation was considered conquered to review an investment report they published in 2019 called Ditch the Models. Which of these models the team suggested ditching panned out the way they expected? And are there any others that could do with being ditched today? The swiftly growing animal health sector is the final topic as the team discuss how to avoid the dogs in the space and hopefully end up as the cats who got the cream.

The chemicals sector is often the canary in the economic coal mine, so a spate of profit warnings spark a discussion among the team. Meanwhile, is the pent-up demand from COVID-delayed elective surgeries finally coming on stream, and what would it mean for med-tech companies? Finally, the team takes a deep dive on German industrial giant Siemens, which has spent a decade reshaping its business.

Commodities have fallen from their lofty 2022 heights, so are they starting to get interesting again? The team discuss the fortunes of everything from foodstuffs to metals through energy, given the ever-changing backdrop for commodities. Meanwhile, is AI the revolutionary force people are excited about, or another fad generating a bout of market hype? Will long-time holding Adobe, a digital marketing tool supplier known for the humble PDF, harness AI or get eaten by it?

Is America approaching the finish line for interest rate hikes? The team discuss the latest from the other side of the pond, including all the fun of the debt ceiling political football. Meanwhile, are the fears and stresses in the commercial property market signs of an opportunity or a justified warning to stay well away? That leads the team to ponder US insulation and roofing business, Owens Corning, and the tailwinds that should support the company in coming years.

Given all the recession chat, Rahab tries to bring some positivity to this episode and challenges Will and David to build a bull case for investing. Following the UK’s Green Day announcements, the team also discuss why it seems net-zero is falling down the priority list, what this means for electric vehicles and why they believe global auto technology company Aptiv could be the winner in this space.

Trying to unpick the turmoil in the banking sector, the team discuss what happened in the last week or so and what it means for the future, and explain what action they’ve taken as a result. Their gaze then shifts to our fair shores as they ask whether, after a few years in the investment wilderness, the UK could be on the precipice of some structural changes that might support the economy and perhaps the equity market too.

Could David’s usual prediction of US stocks beating European ones come a cropper this year? The team also explain why US real estate investment trusts are a different ball game for them vs the UK market, and where there are some exciting opportunities. Finally, the team turn a loving, Valentine’s Day gaze towards European luxury goods giant LVMH and discuss just why the company’s resilient earnings are perhaps worth paying a pretty penny for.

The team kick off 2023 discussing the outlook for the year ahead: what stays the same, what changes, and why it’s important not to overreact simply because there’s a new calendar adorning our desks. They also discuss whether consumers trading down in household staples will mean less-resilient revenues, and why they think global skincare and cosmetics giant Estee Lauder presents a different story to its peers.

Join the whole Sharpe End team for the Christmas special edition where Craig, Rahab, and Will hold David to account for his predictions for 2022. Just how well did David call the fortunes of the UK economy? How accurate were his views on speculative technology and cryptocurrency? And, importantly, did he beat last year’s score of 4.5 points!?

With all the shenanigans since our last episode, is the UK now a relative beacon of political stability? If so, does that move the dial for the prices of British assets? The team explain why capital discipline and the resiliency of ad revenue are the order of the day for them given recent weaker earnings from the US tech giants. Finally, do political shifts in China change the long-term picture for investing in the country?

The team ponder whether, after the not-so-mini reaction to the Chancellor’s ‘mini-budget’, it’s finally time to buy UK bonds again or whether US Treasuries still look a better place for capital, and explain how they are tackling currency exposure in the face of a continually volatile pound. Also, what does the return to a world of higher costs of capital and risk-free rates mean for markets, and how should it change how we invest? 

Have US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole spooked the team as much as they spooked the market? This month, David, Will, and Craig also discuss how much attention to pay to the weakening US housing market, and finally touch on the video game industry and how it should remain an exciting place to invest for many years to come.

We may have (finally) reached peak inflation, argue David, Will and Rahab this month. Also, they explain how the Tory leadership campaign made them reassess the benefits and pitfalls of deregulation, and why they think water is an exciting investment theme for their portfolios.

This month, David, Will and Craig discuss the wide-ranging impacts of the energy market’s current stresses and complexities. Also, despite some expected post-pandemic catch-up in consumer services spending, the team aren’t tempted by many businesses that have benefited. Finally, they discuss the departure of Prime Minister Boris Johnson in real time and what it might mean for fiscal policy and the UK economy.

Why is credit starting to look attractive to David, Will and Craig for the first time in quite a while? Also, the team question how resilient consumer staples companies may be in the current environment and explain why they are still comfortable with composite decking manufacturer Trex despite a tough year so far.

This month, David, Will and Craig discuss managing a portfolio in a bear market and avoiding the pitfalls of emotional decisions, their love/hate relationship with the hamster wheel of earnings season, and why – despite attracting the attention of a rather eccentric billionaire – pure play social media companies have never really turned their heads.

This month, David Will and Rahab try to make sense of what simultaneous recessionary and inflationary risks mean for markets and central bank policy. Also, what does the difficult start to the year for ESG investing mean for its future? And they explain why Ulta Beauty has been surprisingly resilient despite rocky markets.

This month David, Will, and Craig discuss the various long and short-term market implications of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and how they are attempting to navigate these in portfolios.

On this month’s episode of The Sharpe End, David, Will and Rahab question whether the Bank of England hiking rates will be good for the UK economy. Also, what do the latest earnings from the FAANG, or now MAMAA, stocks tell us? And they share their thoughts on the rise of activist investors targeting company management.  

In the first episode of 2022 David, Will, and Craig try to bring some order to a rather tricky new year for global markets, discussing what risks and opportunities this presents. The team also explain why they aren’t reaching for the gold despite growing geopolitical risks, and why they are buying baser commodities instead.

On this month’s episode, Will and Craig review and score David’s predictions for 2021 against how the year actually panned out. Decide for yourself whether they are too harsh on David’s crystal ball gazing. More importantly, the team discuss how their strategy has evolved in 2021 and ponder the latest shift in the ‘growth’ vs ‘value’ debate.

On this month’s episode of The Sharpe End, David, Will and Rahab discuss the best ways to protect portfolios from COVID, supply chain risks and inflation. Also, do trends towards veganism and a low-carbon future mean major disruption is coming for farmers and food makers? And we explain how nutrition businesses DSM and Christian Hansen are helping to solve health challenges and cut food waste.

On this month’s episode of The Sharpe End, David, Will and Craig discuss the implications of the energy crisis and whether the clean power transition has gone too far too fast. Also, is the Bank of England in danger of killing off the fragile UK recovery? If so, what would that mean for the pound? And David explains why his love of Denmark extends beyond gluten-free pastries and Scandinavian crime series.

On this month’s episode of The Sharpe End, David, Will, and Craig ask whether investors are getting too excited about dubious subscription business models, and whether investors are looking critically enough at these ‘flywheels’ of growth. Should they instead spin the wheel and investigate some of those pure Covid reopening plays? Speaking of wheels, they also look at how the shift from exercise bikes to a set of real wheels helps Shimano.

In the second episode of The Sharpe End, David, Will and Craig discuss the rationale behind China’s intervention in technology and education markets, along with the potential for contagion into other sectors. Also, has UK commercial property hit its bottom? And should they worry about the recent jump in Dexcom’s share price?

In the inaugural episode of The Sharpe End, David, Will and Craig discuss the private equity battle for Morrisons and the broader picture for UK retail. Also, how might the UK’s inflationary future differ from the rest of the world, and what does Cristiano Ronaldo know about Coca-Cola’s water business?