2023: The year ahead. Maybe?

It’s that time again, lucky people. Join me as I look ahead to 2023, make some from-the-hip forecasts about where the world is going and try not to set myself up for too much embarrassment in a year’s time. We’ll have some laughs.

The team gave me a C for last year’s predictions, scoring me 5.5 out of 10 during our Christmas podcast, up from 4.5 the year before. To beat my PB I could go safe, or I could reach out for the stars, sticking my finger in the air, hoping I’m more successful than Virgin Orbit...

So, as always, with a huge pinch of salt comes this year’s ‘certainties’:

1. The UK 10-year gilt yield will be 100 basis points lower than its US Treasury counterpart at year end – sub 2% – thanks to a deeper recession here, aided by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey
2. US stocks will outperform European ones. I know I say it every year, but you have to back quality
3. Italian government bonds will provide a higher return than Doge(y)coin
4. Gold ends the year over $2,000, while oil falls back to $50
5. Emerging market debt outperforms sterling investment grade corporate bonds as the US dollar weakens on deafening ‘monetary policy pivot’ chat
6. Russian President Vladimir Putin steps down after being asked nicely by colleagues with menacing accoutrements
7. Cornish house prices drop 20% as second home-owners are concerned over targeted tax increases and the retirement of Doc Martin
8. US banks increase their share of the UK financial services market through acquisitions and price wars
9. Labour leader Keir Starmer pivots to a policy of re-joining the European single market with a common customs area, enticing the European Research Group to call for the return of Boris Johnson
10. And finally, FIFA awards the 2038 Men’s Football World Cup hosting rights to the Cook Islands, to be held in February with 128 teams. England fail to qualify despite still being led by Lord Southgate of Crystal Palace.

Tune in to The Sharpe End — a multi-asset investing podcast from Rathbones. You can listen here or wherever you get your podcasts. New episodes monthly.